In short, it’s everything you need to know for that day of skiing summed up in a quick recorded message that is the most reliable daily forecast for anyone riding or skiing Vermont’s Mount Mansfield.
And it is something you should listen to every day — even when you are back home — because often Mount Mansfield will get very different conditions than the surrounding area, conditions even seasoned forecasters sometimes miss.
“It can be raining — or even sunny — in the village of Stowe and dumping snow up at the mountain,” says Scott Braaten, who has been skiing Stowe since 2008, describing himself as “a self-taught weather guru.” He now works for Stowe Mountain Resort and is often the voice on the recorded morning forecast on Stowe’s snow phone. To get that forecast, he combines his local knowledge with all the data the National Weather Service (NWS) provides out of its Burlington station.
As Braaten says: “The National Weather Service is 100 percent the place to go for the most reliable forecasts. Many of the NWS forecasters are skiers, and they are sitting in the Burlington Airport and can see Mount Mansfield,” says Braaten. “They know what’s going on and it’s where I get my data.” It’s a far better choice than relying on forecasters who may be 100 miles away and may not be aware of the variations in weather at Vermont’s ski mountains.
Measuring Weather Data on Mount Mansfield
What makes Mount Mansfield forecasts different from recreational forecasts in other parts of the state or from conditions reports submitted by ski areas? Mount Mansfield has weather stations near its summit that monitor hourly or daily data such as wind speed, temperature, precipitation and snowfall. That detailed information is relayed to the NWS, which posts it on its website.“There’s also this really cool feature on the NWS site that allows you to click at any point on a map and see what the weather is at various elevations,” says Braaten. “If you just Google ‘weather in Stowe,’ you’re going to get the weather in the village. The weather on the mountain can be very different.”
“A lot of people don’t know about that clickable map,” says NWS forecaster Matthew Clay, who is based in Burlington. “Because Mount Mansfield is so big, it has an impact on the weather,” says Clay. “It really pays to look around and click on different areas,” he says.
The highest mountain in Vermont, Mount Mansfield also gets the most precipitation year-round.
While Burlington, to the west, is at an elevation 300 feet above sea level, Mount Mansfield’s summit is at 4,393. “The weather usually comes from the west, and it has to go up and over the Green Mountains,” says Clay. “That’s what we call orographic lifting and it results in upslope snow.” As the air rises, it cools and compresses the moisture, and when the temperatures are cool enough, that means snow.
Clay also notes that the Burlington station is working on an experimental avalanche conditions forecast. “We’re working with partners such as Stowe Mountain Rescue to document some of the freeze and thaw cycles that can set up the snowpack for avalanche conditions,” says Clay. While you won’t encounter avalanches on Stowe Mountain Resort’s groomed trail, there have been slides in the steeper backcountry terrain in Smugglers’ Notch.
“Mount Mansfield, with its long ridgeline, also acts like a wall,” says Braaten. “Whereas a single peak like Camel’s Hump might let the air move around it quickly, a system can get blocked on Mount Mansfield. While some studies have indicated that Mount Mansfield also benefits from what’s called “lake effect” from Lake Champlain, Braaten isn’t so sure. “I’d say any ‘lake effect’ we get is from Lake Ontario. Lake Champlain is only about 7 miles wide and there’s not enough fetch there for a storm to gather much moisture.” Additionally, during many winters Lake Champlain is frozen over.
The Mount Mansfield Snow Stake
One thing is certain and documented: Mount Mansfield gets plenty of snow, with an average annual snowfall of close to 300 inches.
In 1954, the first “snow stake” was put in on Mount Mansfield and snow depths have been recorded nearly every day since then. The 12-foot-high, two-by-four is marked off with feet and stands at a spot off the Toll Road at 3,900 feet of elevation.
For many years, observers with WCAX would note the snow depth every day and report it to the NWS. In recent years, the NWS has taken over monitoring “The Stake” as it is known, via a live web cam. “If the web cam fails, it’s usually me or one of our community members goes up to get a visual and we report it in,” says Braaten.
“How much snow is at The Stake?” is a question you’ll often hear from skiers around New England — and they mean the Mount Mansfield stake. While the stake is the best gauge for snowfall at Stowe, it has also become something of an icon for how much snow is there. Numerous websites track the snow over the years. Matthew Parilla, an engineer and a developer of web analytics reporting applications, has created a site with an interactive graph that tracks the snowfall and compares it to previous seasons on any given day. “Matt’s site is phenomenal – it’s the easiest way to see what’s going on and where we stand in a season” says Braaten.
For skiers who like to explore the backcountry, the Stake serves as an indicator of whether there is enough base to cover the fallen trees and other hazards that can cause an injury. “We usually say 50 inches or so is the minimum before you should head into the woods,” says Braaten. Parilla’s graph of previous years is also a good indicator of how much snow depth to expect on various weekends in the season. The graph shows that on average snow depths peak at the Stake in late March or early April. In April 1996, for instance, the Stake measured a whopping 135 inches.
So just because the snow may have melted in your backyard, there could still be plenty of skiing on the mountain at Stowe.
Produced in partnership with Vermont Ski + Ride Magazine.
Snow Reporter’s Notes
Monday, April 6 at 4:20 PM
The spring rollercoaster continued today as winter returned with much colder air and northwest upslope flow teaming up to produce persistent snow showers over the Mansfield massif. Snowfall was widely variable and influenced heavily by wind. The Lookout Snow Cam has seen three inches accumulate in the past 24 hours (1" before the 7am flip, then 2" after), while the High Road Plot was less than an inch with evidence of wind scouring.
We’ll be honest, despite snowing all day, it skis and rides more like an inch or so on top of hardpack, so that’s what we will put in the tally for now. We know the Stowe Family has certain expectations for a “Stowe three” and that was not it. These snow showers should linger overnight, so some light additional accumulation is possible and we can reassess snowfall then.
Speaking of the skiing and riding, it was certainly variable with the firm hardpack base being a prominent feature following the thaw-freeze cycle. There were some drifted pockets that led to quieter turns, but they were localized. The best turns will continue to be found on groomed terrain during this cold stretch, and the new snow should help temporarily soften tomorrow’s groomed terrain.
Tomorrow’s forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies with light snow likely. Accumulations of 1 – 3 inches are possible as a weak system passes through. Computer weather models diverge on tomorrow’s snowfall, but fingers crossed we can tap into a little bit of Mansfield Magic by the end of the day. High temperatures will remain on the cooler side, ranging from near 20 degrees at the summit to near 30 degrees in the base area.
Upper mountain winds are forecast to be out of the west/northwest at 25 – 40 miles per hour and we are hopeful those winds won’t affect our lift operations. As always, please stay tuned to stowe.com/alerts, the My Epic App, or our electronic trail maps in the base areas for the most up-to-date status information.
We plan to operate 2 lifts tomorrow, and first chair is scheduled to load on the FourRunner Quad and Sunrise lift at 8am for the remainder of the season. Shuttle service will be available between the Mansfield and Spruce Peak base areas.
Skiers & riders will be getting down the mountain on roughly 40 open trails tomorrow, totaling 170 acres of top to bottom skiing and riding on Vermont’s highest peak. Please note that skiing and riding is recommended for intermediate and advanced ability levels only, as there is no suitable learning terrain available.
Snowmaking base depths range from 18 – 48 inches with variable loose and frozen granular surface conditions. Given the expected temperatures and cloudy skies, we do not anticipate much, if any, softening of the snow tomorrow. Steeper, ungroomed terrain will likely remain closed. Looking ahead, later in the week the temperatures rise with increasing sunshine, so we should see the trail count expand again once the snowpack softens up.
The Mount Mansfield Summit Stake was last observed reading 61 inches of natural depth, with 55 inches observed at our High Road plot, and the Barnes Camp plot is reading 7 inches in the base area.
The legendary Legion of Groom will be smoothing out 29 trails tonight, including the steep favorite of Nosedive. In total, we should see over 11 miles of varying textures of corduroy to enjoy in the morning.
Stowe Parks will be bringing the stoke tomorrow in the Standard and Lower Gulch terrain parks, which have a combined total of 25 freshly groomed features.
Hope you had a great day on the slopes!