In short, it’s everything you need to know for that day of skiing summed up in a quick recorded message that is the most reliable daily forecast for anyone riding or skiing Vermont’s Mount Mansfield.
And it is something you should listen to every day — even when you are back home — because often Mount Mansfield will get very different conditions than the surrounding area, conditions even seasoned forecasters sometimes miss.
“It can be raining — or even sunny — in the village of Stowe and dumping snow up at the mountain,” says Scott Braaten, who has been skiing Stowe since 2008, describing himself as “a self-taught weather guru.” He now works for Stowe Mountain Resort and is often the voice on the recorded morning forecast on Stowe’s snow phone. To get that forecast, he combines his local knowledge with all the data the National Weather Service (NWS) provides out of its Burlington station.
As Braaten says: “The National Weather Service is 100 percent the place to go for the most reliable forecasts. Many of the NWS forecasters are skiers, and they are sitting in the Burlington Airport and can see Mount Mansfield,” says Braaten. “They know what’s going on and it’s where I get my data.” It’s a far better choice than relying on forecasters who may be 100 miles away and may not be aware of the variations in weather at Vermont’s ski mountains.
Measuring Weather Data on Mount Mansfield
What makes Mount Mansfield forecasts different from recreational forecasts in other parts of the state or from conditions reports submitted by ski areas? Mount Mansfield has weather stations near its summit that monitor hourly or daily data such as wind speed, temperature, precipitation and snowfall. That detailed information is relayed to the NWS, which posts it on its website.“There’s also this really cool feature on the NWS site that allows you to click at any point on a map and see what the weather is at various elevations,” says Braaten. “If you just Google ‘weather in Stowe,’ you’re going to get the weather in the village. The weather on the mountain can be very different.”
“A lot of people don’t know about that clickable map,” says NWS forecaster Matthew Clay, who is based in Burlington. “Because Mount Mansfield is so big, it has an impact on the weather,” says Clay. “It really pays to look around and click on different areas,” he says.
The highest mountain in Vermont, Mount Mansfield also gets the most precipitation year-round.
While Burlington, to the west, is at an elevation 300 feet above sea level, Mount Mansfield’s summit is at 4,393. “The weather usually comes from the west, and it has to go up and over the Green Mountains,” says Clay. “That’s what we call orographic lifting and it results in upslope snow.” As the air rises, it cools and compresses the moisture, and when the temperatures are cool enough, that means snow.
Clay also notes that the Burlington station is working on an experimental avalanche conditions forecast. “We’re working with partners such as Stowe Mountain Rescue to document some of the freeze and thaw cycles that can set up the snowpack for avalanche conditions,” says Clay. While you won’t encounter avalanches on Stowe Mountain Resort’s groomed trail, there have been slides in the steeper backcountry terrain in Smugglers’ Notch.
“Mount Mansfield, with its long ridgeline, also acts like a wall,” says Braaten. “Whereas a single peak like Camel’s Hump might let the air move around it quickly, a system can get blocked on Mount Mansfield. While some studies have indicated that Mount Mansfield also benefits from what’s called “lake effect” from Lake Champlain, Braaten isn’t so sure. “I’d say any ‘lake effect’ we get is from Lake Ontario. Lake Champlain is only about 7 miles wide and there’s not enough fetch there for a storm to gather much moisture.” Additionally, during many winters Lake Champlain is frozen over.
The Mount Mansfield Snow Stake
One thing is certain and documented: Mount Mansfield gets plenty of snow, with an average annual snowfall of close to 300 inches.
In 1954, the first “snow stake” was put in on Mount Mansfield and snow depths have been recorded nearly every day since then. The 12-foot-high, two-by-four is marked off with feet and stands at a spot off the Toll Road at 3,900 feet of elevation.
For many years, observers with WCAX would note the snow depth every day and report it to the NWS. In recent years, the NWS has taken over monitoring “The Stake” as it is known, via a live web cam. “If the web cam fails, it’s usually me or one of our community members goes up to get a visual and we report it in,” says Braaten.
“How much snow is at The Stake?” is a question you’ll often hear from skiers around New England — and they mean the Mount Mansfield stake. While the stake is the best gauge for snowfall at Stowe, it has also become something of an icon for how much snow is there. Numerous websites track the snow over the years. Matthew Parilla, an engineer and a developer of web analytics reporting applications, has created a site with an interactive graph that tracks the snowfall and compares it to previous seasons on any given day. “Matt’s site is phenomenal – it’s the easiest way to see what’s going on and where we stand in a season” says Braaten.
For skiers who like to explore the backcountry, the Stake serves as an indicator of whether there is enough base to cover the fallen trees and other hazards that can cause an injury. “We usually say 50 inches or so is the minimum before you should head into the woods,” says Braaten. Parilla’s graph of previous years is also a good indicator of how much snow depth to expect on various weekends in the season. The graph shows that on average snow depths peak at the Stake in late March or early April. In April 1996, for instance, the Stake measured a whopping 135 inches.
So just because the snow may have melted in your backyard, there could still be plenty of skiing on the mountain at Stowe.
Produced in partnership with Vermont Ski + Ride Magazine.
Snow Reporter’s Notes
Friday, April 3 at 3:45 PM
It’s Sugar Slalom Weekend at Stowe! One of the most recognized alpine races in America and across the globe, this will be the 87th running of this historical race that serves as a celebration of spring. Races will take place on Slalom Hill and Competition Hill over at Spruce Peak. Good luck racers and ski fast!
Today featured character building weather and snow conditions to start the day, as rain showers, fog and highly variable snow surfaces offered an interesting challenge at first chair. As the day went on though, the precipitation tapered off, temperatures rose and the snow surfaces softened up nicely. It turned into a fun afternoon of spring skiing & riding, and we saw much of the steeper and ungroomed terrain reopen as the snow surfaces softened up.
A weak cold front will drop through overnight, which could drop temperatures down near freezing to start the day. If that happens, we will see the snowpack tighten up again and lead to a firmer surface at first chair. Snow conditions should once again soften throughout the day though as seasonably mild afternoon temperatures return in the afternoon.Â
Tomorrow’s forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies, with just a slight chance of a rain shower towards last chair. The vast majority of the day, if not the whole day, should be dry and free of any precipitation. Afternoon temperatures should rise into the low to mid 40s at the summit, and to near 50 degrees in the base area.
Upper mountain winds are forecast to be out of the northeast at 20 – 35 miles per hour tomorrow, and those winds should not affect our lift operations. As always though, please stay tuned to stowe.com/alerts, the My Epic App, or our electronic trail maps in the base areas for the most up-to-date status information.
We plan to operate 7 uphill lifts tomorrow, along with the Over Easy Transfer Gondola, and first chair is scheduled to load on the FourRunner Quad, Mansfield Gondola and Sunrise lift at 8am. Toll House area terrain remains open for skiing and riding back to lodging and parking for as long as conditions permit, but with no return lift service.
Skiers & riders will be getting down the mountain on an estimated 88 open trails tomorrow, totaling 381 acres of top to bottom skiing and riding on Vermont’s highest peak. There could be some delayed openings on steeper, ungroomed terrain until the snow surface softens up.
Snowmaking base depths range from 18 – 48 inches with variable spring conditions expected. That could mean a firmer surface to start the day, followed by softer spring snow as the temperatures rise.
The Mount Mansfield Summit Stake was last observed reading 62 inches of natural depth, with 58 inches observed at our High Road plot, and the Barnes Camp base area plot is reading 18 inches.
Our heroes, the Legion of Groom, will be tilling and smoothing out 47 trails tonight, including the steep favorites of Liftline and Nosedive. Join us in the morning to carve up over 18 miles and 274 acres of smooth spring corduroy.
Stowe Parks continues to bring the stoke with 30+ features for all levels of freestyle progression in the Lower Gulch, Standard, and Midway terrain parks. All three parks should see a fresh groom tonight.
Easter Sunrise Service – Join us Sunday morning for the 70th Annual Easter Sunrise Service on Mount Mansfield! On Sunday, the Mansfield Gondola is scheduled to begin loading the public at 4:45 AM for a complimentary ride to the top. The Gondola will then stop loading uphill passengers at 6:00 AM sharp, so all guests can reach the top prior to the service starting.Â
Following the service, guests can ski or ride down and all foot passengers will be downloaded. The Gondola will then stay open for the day. Due to grooming operations taking place just prior to the service starting, there is no uphill travel allowed to access the service.
Operations Update – Sunday, April 5, is the final day of operations for the Mansfield Gondola and all remaining Spruce Peak lifts. Make sure to enjoy some final laps on those lifts this weekend. Starting Monday, April 6, all operations will take place on Mount Mansfield with the FourRunner Quad and Sunrise lift operating for the remainder of the season.
Hope you had a great day on the slopes!
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